A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
