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PHEVs release nearly 5x greater global warming emissions than official figures indicate, as per a new report.

Widening Discrepancy In Official and Real-World CO2 Output

Statistics shows that PHEVs release just one-fifth less CO₂ than traditional petrol and diesel vehicles, based on analysis carried out by a non-profit group. This differs significantly with laboratory estimates, which assumed a three-quarters decrease in emissions.

Analysts examined data from in-vehicle fuel consumption monitors of eight hundred thousand vehicles registered in Europe between 2021 and 2023. They discovered that actual CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times greater than lab estimates, up from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Actual emissions are rising, while lab-reported emissions are falling,” stated a senior researcher participating in the report. “That gap is growing and poses a serious issue. As a result, PHEVs emit nearly as much as gasoline cars.”

Key Factors Behind the Emissions Gap

Analysts linked the majority of the difference to inflated estimates of the “electric driving share” – the ratio of miles driven in battery mode relative to total distance. The team determined that only a quarter of travel was done in EV mode, while lab assumptions assumed 84%.

Even, when operating in EV mode, pollution levels were significantly higher than lab projections. This occurred because EV motors were not strong sufficient to function independently, resulting to engines using gasoline for almost one-third of the distance covered in EV mode.

Regulatory and Economic Consequences

According to estimates, the underestimation of PHEV CO2 output allowed four major automaker groups to avoid more than €5bn in penalties from 2021 and 2023, by artificially simplifying compliance with European Union average fleet CO₂ targets.

Additionally, owners of PHEVs could spend approximately €500 more per year in running costs than is assumed under lab tests.

“The strong statements that manufacturers like to make about their PHEV cars are clearly far from the mark,” commented a automotive analyst. “Buyers are being duped into believing that by buying a PHEV, they are helping the environment and cutting costs. Actually, PHEVs are only slightly better than standard gas and diesel vehicles in terms of energy use, CO₂ production, and running costs.”

Policy Debate and Industry Pressure

Hybrid cars have lately been brought back into political debates as automakers have pressed the European Union to weaken CO₂ standards. A proposed ban on sales of new internal combustion cars in 2035 has faced heavy pressure from the automotive sector and opposition from member states with large automotive manufacturing.

Several senior officials have suggested PHEVs as a potential “flexibility” option to introduce in the legislation.

One external energy policy expert, who was not involved with the study, called the analysis a “very useful addition” after years in which parts of the car sector claimed there was insufficient information to accurately assess actual CO2 output.

“These findings show, without question, that the difference between lab and actual PHEV energy use and CO₂ emissions is significantly greater than for gasoline or conventional vehicles,” the expert said. “Any policy adjustments concerning PHEVs should be made with extreme care and in the light of this data.”